大致说完格林斯潘的“美联储语言”之后,就要谈到格式化的美联储语言了。笔者认为,与公众有关的格式化的“美联储语言”主要是美联储的公告特别是FOMC会议的简报。
目前,格式化的FOMC公告主要包括如下七个方面的内容。
1、公告日期以及“立即公告”提示。
2、加/减息多少,最终利率的水平。
3、调整利率的主要理由,重点谈货币政策、经济增长、劳动力市场状况、劳动生产率、物价走势、通货膨胀预期以及压力、外国经济等。
4、表明追求均衡增长的态度,并强调履行维持价格稳定的法律义务。
5、公布参加FOMC货币政策行动投票成员的名单。
6、说明提高/降低贴现率的幅度。
7、告示各个地区联邦储备银行的董事局提交加息或降息请求的情况。
由此可见,FOMC每次1600个字符左右的公告包含了大量的信息,透过这些信息,人们可以了解中央银行核心决策者所关心的重大经济金融问题,由此揣摩未来的货币政策走势。
由于公告的许多内容都是格式化的重复,因此,每次公告内容的有80%以上的重复,真正有别于上次公告的内容是非常少的,要说具体的不同,主要表现为:日期的变化,加减息幅度的差别,最大的不同是第三部分,在这里,读者必须找到最关键的字眼,态度和义务全是例行公事,参加投票的人也是基本不变的,贴现率的升跌也是萧规曹随,最后,各个地区联邦储备银行的董事局提交加息或降息请求的情况是识别美国经济地区差别的重要信息,资深分析人士对这个信息也非常重视。
以2005年6月30的加息公告为例(具体的七个内容以阿拉伯数字分别标识):
1、 Release Date: June 30, 2005
For immediate release
2、The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/4 percent.
3、The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.
4、The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.
5、Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Edward M. Gramlich; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.
6、In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4-1/4 percent.
7、In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
其实,目前的标准化格式最早是在1999年8月24日确定下来的。
公告日期:1999年8月24日
立即发布
联邦公开市场委员会今天决定将联邦基金利率提高25基点,上升到它的目标位5%。
委员会相信,甚至在这次行动以后,货币政策的态势仍然保持适当并且,与正在强劲提高的劳动生产率相适应,将为经济活动提供支持。在最近几个月,经济增长得以改进,劳动力市场状况的改善也放慢了。这种放缓看来应该归咎于能源价格的显著上升。不过,经济总体上讲还是均衡的,未来增长将继续保持强劲态势。今年的通货膨胀已经有所抬头,虽然价格上升的部分原因反映了某些暂时性因素的影响。
委员会认为,在未来的几个季度,追求同时实现持续的增长以及价格稳定目标,其上升和下降的风险是大致相当的。潜在的通货膨胀仍然如期待中的那样低,委员会相信政策调整是可以被测量的并以某一速度被转移。尽管如此,委员会将对经济前景的变化做出及时的反应,必要时,它将履行了维持价格稳定的义务。
参加FOMC货币政策行动投票的有:阿伦·格林斯潘主席;T·F·盖特勒副主席;B·S·B伯南克;苏珊·S·比斯;罗杰·W·小弗格森;爱德华·M·格兰里奇;托马斯·M·何力格;唐纳德·L·库恩;凯茜·E·明汉;马克·W·奥尔逊;桑德拉·皮亚纳托;以及威廉·普尔。
同时,与加息相关联的行动,委员会一致同意将贴现率提高25个基点,增加到2.50%。联邦公开市场委员会采取这次行动,是采纳了下列各个联邦储备银行的董事局提交的请求,即波士顿,纽约,费拉德尔菲亚,克利夫兰,里士满,亚特兰大,芝加哥,圣.路易斯,明尼阿波利斯,堪萨斯城,达拉斯和旧金山。
附:原文
Release Date: August 24,1999
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent.
With financial markets functioning more normally, and with persistent strength in domestic demand, foreign economies firming and labor markets remaining very tight, the degree of monetary ease required to address the global financial market turmoil of last fall is no longer consistent with sustained, noninflationary, economic expansion.
Todays increase in the federal funds rate, together with the policy action in June and the firming of conditions more generally in U.S. financial markets over recent months, should markedly diminish the risk of rising inflation going forward. As a consequence, the directive the Federal Open Market Committee adopted is symmetrical with regard to the outlook for policy over the near term.
In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. The discount rate is the interest rate that is charged depository institutions when they borrow from their district Federal Reserve Banks.
在格式化之前,美联储的公告格式是比较随意的,下面的例子充分说明了在此之前的随意性和不规范。
公告日期:1999年6月30日
立即发布
联邦公开市场委员会今天决定将联邦基金利率提高25基点,上升到它的目标位5%。
去年秋天,委员会减息以应对美国的金融市场明显的中止情形。在那之后,金融紧张局面已经得到大大缓解,外国经济强劲,美国经济活动也进入强劲增长的轨道,因此,我们断定不必再作充分的调整。
过去几个季度,劳动力市场持续偏紧,但是,劳动生产率的强劲增长已经抑制了通货膨胀。
由于未来经济受诸多相互冲突的力量的作用,其综合的不确定性,FOMC决定采取一个指导思想包括不再偏好短期政策行为。不过,委员会意识到,当前的动态环境,必须对即将发生的,或者潜在即将发生的,可能对经济增长带来隐患的通货膨胀保持警觉。
附:原文
Release Date: June 30,1999
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 5 percent.
Last fall the Committee reduced interest rates to counter a significant seizing-up of financial markets in the United States. Since then much of the financial strain has eased, foreign economies have firmed,and economic activity in the United States has moved forward at a brisk pace. Accordingly,the full degree of adjustment is judged no longer necessary.
Labor markets have continued to tighten over recent quarters, but strengthening productivity growth has contained inflationary pressures.
Owing to the uncertain resolution of the balance of conflicting forces in the economy going forward, the FOMC has chosen to adopt a directive that includes no predilection about near-term policy action. The Committee, nonetheless, recognizes that in the current dynamic environment it must be especially alert to the emergence,or potential emergence,of inflationary forces that could undermine economic growth.