研究称俄罗斯私有化进程使俄男性死亡率急剧上升

来源：乌有之乡     2009-1-16    点击率：1429    三星级推荐

中新网1月15日电最新研究显示，前苏联解体后俄罗斯迅速展开的大规模私有化进程，使俄罗斯男性的死亡率急剧上升。这份英国研究报告认为，私有化改革飞速发展使失业率飙升，失业者中包括不少男性。
据英国广播公司报道，研究人员说，这一研究结果可以作为其它开始进行广泛市场改革的相关国家借鉴。最新一期的《柳叶刀》杂志在网上刊登了这个最新研究成果。

课题组人员对1989年至2002年间，前东欧共产主义国家和前苏联处于工作年龄的男性死亡数据进行了研究。他们得出结论说，多达100万处于工作年龄段的男性在大规模私有化的经济大潮冲击下死亡。

随着前苏联在上世纪90年代初解体，至少有四分之一的前苏联大型国有企业在两年的时间内在私有化进程中变为私人企业。研究说，这个大规模私有化进程与男性死亡率上升12.8%之间有关联。

最新研究把男性死亡率上升与同期失业率上升56%联系了起来。不过，这份研究发现，那些有着良好社会支援服务网络的国家，在经历这一私有化转变过程中比其它国家更好。

报告说，如果45%或以上的男性至少参加一个社会组织，譬如教会团体或工会组织，大规模私有化进程就没有令其死亡率增加。

俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚所受的影响最大，在1991至1994年间，随着失业率飙升三倍，男性死亡率也上升了42%。

与此相比，那些改革措施缓慢、逐步引入市场经济政策并发展相关社会支援机制的国家的男性死亡率则较低。

在这方面，阿尔巴尼亚、克罗地亚、捷克、波兰和斯洛文尼亚等国在失业率增长2%的情况下，男性死亡率却降低了10%。

Mass privatisation and the post-communist mortality crisis: a cross-national analysis
 
The Lancet, Early Online Publication, 15 January 2009
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60005-2Cite
 
David Stuckler MPH a , Lawrence King PhD a, Prof Martin McKee MD b

Summary

Background
During the early-1990s, adult mortality rates rose in most post-communist European countries. Substantial differences across countries and over time remain unexplained. Although previous studies have suggested that the pace of economic transition was a key driver of increased mortality rates, to our knowledge no study has empirically assessed the role of specific components of transition policies. We investigated whether mass privatisation can account for differences in adult mortality rates in such countries.

Methods
We used multivariate longitudinal regression to analyse age-standardised mortality rates in working-age men (15—59 years) in post-communist countries of eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from 1989 to 2002. We defined mass privatisation programmes as transferring at least 25% of large state-owned enterprises to the private sector within 2 years with the use of vouchers and give-aways to firm insiders. To isolate the effect of mass privatisation, we used models to control for price and trade liberalisation, income change, initial country conditions, structural predispositions to higher mortality, and other potential confounders.

Findings
Mass privatisation programmes were associated with an increase in short-term adult male mortality rates of 12·8% (95% CI 7·9—17·7; p<0·0001), with similar results for the alternative privatisation indices from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (7·8% [95% CI 2·8—13·0]). One mediating factor could be male unemployment rates, which were increased substantially by mass privatisation (56·3% [28·3—84·3]; p<0·0001). Each 1% increase in the percentage of population who were members of at least one social organisation decreased the association of privatisation with mortality by 0·27%; when more than 45% of a population was a member of at least one social organisation, privatisation was no longer significantly associated with increased mortality rates (3·4% [95% CI −5·4 to 12·3]; p=0·44).

Interpretation
Rapid mass privatisation as an economic transition strategy was a crucial determinant of differences in adult mortality trends in post-communist countries; the effect of privatisation was reduced if social capital was high. These findings might be relevant to other countries in which similar policies are being considered.

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