Your Majesties, Your Royal Highnesses, Ladies and Gentlemen:
尊敬的王后陛下以及皇室成员,女士们,先生们:
Robert Kennedy once said, "Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not."
罗伯特·肯尼迪曾经说过,“相当之人接物无非乃‘物之所存,物何以存’;而我则心系‘未存之物,何以未存’” 。
Those words reveal a deep truth about Kennedy: he was an economist at heart–startling though that may seem. In effect, the first line – seeing things as they are and asking why – perfectly describes positive economics, which explains economic events that have happened, or, better yet, forecasts what will happen. Economic forecasting has actually got pretty good over the years, though admittedly we don't always get it right. As one cynic noted, economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions. So, we take consolation from another great statesman, Yogi Berra, who observed that prediction is really hard – especially about the future.
从这些话可以深刻反映出肯尼迪总统在某种程度上也算是一个经济学家,也许这样说有些人会很吃惊。实质上他的第一句“接物无非乃‘物之所存,物何以存’”就完美地描述了实证经济学的范畴,主要是解释经济生活中所发生的或者正在改善的,以及预测将要发生的。实际上这些年来经济的预测已经取得相当的进步,不可否认的是有时候经济预测也会失真,于是这时那些吹毛求疵的就会站出来的指责,在过去实际上仅仅只发生5次的经济衰退,经济学家们就出现9次的失误。也许我们可以从一个伟大的政治家那里得到一点安慰,约吉·贝拉观察到事实上经济预测非常困难,尤其是对“未来”的预测。
Still, it is Kennedy's second line – dreaming of things that never were – that I want to stress, because it captures the part of economics dearest to me: normative economics, the study of the things that never were but ought to be. In particular, it describes the subject of this year's Economics Prize, mechanism design. Leo Hurwicz pioneered this subject nearly 50 years ago, and it has played a role in some of the most important economic policies of our time.
尽管如此,肯尼迪总统的第二句“心系‘未存之物,何以未存’”才是我要强调的,因为他抓住了经济学中我最感兴趣的部分--规范经济学,它所研究的不存在的但应该需要的东西,尤其是它所描述的是今年诺贝尔奖所要颁发的领域—机制设计。50年前列奥·赫尔维茨教授就已经在这个领域作了开创性的贡献,而且对当今一些最重要的经济政策发挥着作用。
But two months ago scarcely anyone but economists had even heard of mechanism design. Suddenly, it has notoriety worthy of an Elvis Presley. Now, I have nothing against Elvis. But somehow he manages to attract a huge public following without even trying. Indeed, he can't very well try since he's been dead for 30 years. Yet, isn't it remarkable that, for one week a year, that kind of attention is focused not just on economics, but on physics, chemistry, medicine, and literature. And for that astounding accomplishment, I'd like to express my warmest appreciation to the Nobel Foundation and the Nobel awarding bodies.
然而两个月前除了经济学家以外几乎很少有人听说过机制设计,令人意想不到的是有人把它(的价值)与“猫王”等量齐观,然而即使是现在,与“猫王”相比,我(的贡献)不足挂齿,但是不知为什么他能够取得如此庞大的“粉丝”的欢欣和支持,当然他早已不能再为其“粉丝”登台再试了,其去世至尽已经30年了。然而,一年前的这一周(对经济学的关注)不是很显著,人们所关注的不仅仅只是经济学,而且包括物理学,化学,医学以及文学。对于那些惊人的成就,在这里我对诺贝尔奖基金会及颁奖委员会表达热烈的感激。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(咨询中国:李泽龙校)