Shen Mengyi: (spot spot gold trading) inflation is rebound, golden week five late rally

（现货黄金收盘）通胀已反弹现货，黄金周五晚间大涨

 

October retail sales rebounded in the United States, spot gold five (14 November) once downward hit session low of $1147.15 an ounce, but crude oil rebounded, st. Louis fed President bullard said on Friday that inflation expectations have risen since October, supported gold, triggering further short-covering after 1167.40, above 1180 levels, refresh a two-week high at $1193.34 an ounce

　美国10月零售销售反弹，现货黄金周五（11月14日）一度下行触及日内低点1147.15美元/盎司，但原油反弹，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周五表示,通胀预期10月以来已经上升，黄金获得支撑，突破1167.40后触发进一步空头回补，突破1180水平，刷新两周高点至1193.34美元/盎司

 

 

On Friday (14 November) situation:

周五(11月14日)走势表述：

 

International sustained concussion downlink Huang Jinya city trading, in the city late hit a session low of $1150.95 an ounce.Pan European city, gold shock slump, in New York before hitting a session low of $1147.80 an ounce;North America in early morning, gold hit session low of 1147.15 after a sharp rebound, break through key resistance level 1180, refresh since October 31 high of $1193.34 an ounce.Spot gold the highest reached 1193.34, the lowest down 1147.15, rose $27.70 to $1187.80 an ounce

　国际黄金亚市开盘后持续震荡下行，于亚市尾盘触及时段低点1150.95美元/盎司；欧市盘中，黄金震荡走低，于纽约盘前触及时段低点1147.80美元/盎司；北美开盘后，黄金触及日内低点1147.15后大幅反弹，突破关键阻力1180水平，刷新10月31日以来高点1193.34美元/盎司。现货黄金最高触及1193.34，最低下探1147.15，上涨27.70美元，报1187.80美元/盎司。

 

The fundamentals of good factors:

　基本面利好因素

 

1. St. Louis fed President bullard said on Friday that inflation expectations have rebounded since October, is expected in the second half of 2014 to 2.0% inflation target, and in more than 2015 target.

1.圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周五表示,通胀预期10月以来已经反弹，预计2014年下半年通胀朝2.0%目标靠拢，并在2015年超过目标水平。

 

 2. The dollar index hit a 2010 high of 88.26 after the retreat, minimum reached 87.40.

2.美元指数触及2010年6月以来高点88.26后回撤，最低触及87.40。

 

3. U.S. crude oil futures and brent crude oil futures rebound sharply, closing up 2.17% and 2.48%, respectively.

3.美国原油期货和布伦特原油期货大幅反弹，收盘分别上涨2.17%和2.48%。

 

 

4. Germany and France 3 quarter rebound, Greece show signs of recovery, the euro zone's third quarter economic growth better than analysts' expectations.

4.德国和法国3季度经济反弹，希腊呈现出复苏迹象，欧元区3季度经济增速好于分析师预期。

 

The fundamentals are negative:

基本面利空因素：

 

 

1. According to data released on Friday, the United States on October retail sales 0.3% growth rate in the United States, a better-than-expected 0.2%, much better than the former value to 0.2%.

1.周五公布的数据显示，美国美国10月零售销售月率增长0.3%，好于预期0.2%，远胜前值-0.2%。

 

2. The U.S. stock market continued to rise, the S&P 500 index to a record high of 2046.18 on Thursday, Friday near the level.

2.美国股市持续上扬，S&P500指数周四再创纪录高点2046.18，周五交投于该水平附近。

 

3. The SPDR fund (the world's largest gold ETF) holdings for seven days.Thursday's holdings fell by 2.05 tons, 720.62 tons, for 6 years and the lowest position level;Since November the fund outflow has 18.59 tons, and pour out of a year in October.

3.SPDR基金（世界上最大的黄金ETF）的持有量连续7日流出。周四持仓量下降2.05吨，至720.62吨，为6年最低持仓水平；11月以来该基金已经流出18.59吨，而10月份的流出创年内之最。

 

4. The world association (WGC) said on Thursday that the third quarter, the global demand for gold dropped to nearly five years, low because of China's buying by a third, take a back seat for the second largest consumer, behind India.Data show that the total gold demand fell 2% to 929 tons, this is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2009.

　4.世界协会(WGC)周四表示，第三季全球黄金需求降至近五年低位，因中国买盘减少三分之一，退居为第二大消费国，落后于印度。数据显示，总黄金需求减少2%至929吨，此为2009年第四季以来最低。

 

Afternoon looking:

后市展望：

 

The recent decline in gold prices has resulted in a $1156.55 (low) in July 2010, and $1154.71 (2008 rally 61.8% retracement) support failure.If the future fell below $1131 in more than four years, low the risk of further dipped below $1092 long-term support.Once the level again was broken, the objective will look at the $1000 mark.Upward, the bank noted that if the short-term gold can recover the key resistance area, 1180/1190 of the $will further upward rebound;But want to reverse the overall decline in October highs above $1255.61.

　近期金价的大跌已经导致1156.55美元(2010年7月低位)以及1154.71美元(2008年涨势61.8%回撤)的支撑失效。如果未来跌破1131美元的4年多低位，存在进一步下探1092美元长期支撑的风险。一旦该水平再遭下破，那么目标将看向1000美元大关。上行方面，该行指出，若果短期金价能够收复1180/1190的美元的关键阻力区，则能进一步向上反弹；但要扭转整体跌势需收在10月高位1255.61美元上方。

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