宏观经济预期下调持续影响A股估值
文/黄辉
六月对股市最具影响力的两大经济举措，一是央行提高存款准备金率1个百分点，达到17.5％的历史新高，二是政府同时大幅上调了成品油价格和电价。前者表明央行认识到高通胀危险，仍以预防为主贯彻从紧的货币政策；后者则是由于屡创新高的国际原油价格对我国政府执行价格管制形成的压力越来越大，政府借CPI未来略有下降的预期寻机解决成品油价格和煤电连动问题。本轮经济增长过程中所隐含的我国各类生产要素价格低估的欠帐也面临着不得不解决的问题，现阶段我国经济面临着巨大的内部和外部通胀压力。
要素价格面临重估
在本世纪初以来的经济增长过程中，除名义汇率之外，我国劳动力、土地、矿产资源、环境等基础产品和公共品的要素价格，都存在一定程度的价格低估，要素价格的回归将增加我国的通胀压力。
价格管制手段对经济的长远发展弊大于利，比如长期以来对炼油企业的补助实际上就是对居民和企业的补助，这种补助的效果是，给市场造成了一种价格错觉，使国内的消费者并不能及时和有效地感知到国际石油价格的变化，被扭曲的价格形成机制将使情况变得更加糟糕，政府所期望的产业经济转型和节能减排也不可能积极地进行。
我国成品油价格逐步放开的趋势是必然的，而且下半年仍可能再上调。而无论调不调价，负面影响都会存在。不调价则财政压力过大，不利于节能减排，成为油荒时时出现的原因；调价则会造成现阶段被压制的通胀水平继续恢复性升高，推升CPI涨幅。从上调的影响看，油价上涨对不同企业的影响是“冷热不均”的，上游企业正面影响会较多；而下游包括交通、运输、农业、渔业还有消费者开支等则会增加。成品油提价对中石油中石化这类企业是重大利好，但另一方面油价电价上涨将导致多数行业的企业盈利能力下降，这是股市未来将继续中期调整格局的重要因素。
外部通胀压力增大
美元泛滥、美元弱势已拉开序幕，由于美元贬值有利于美国经济向世界转嫁危机和负担，所以符合美国自身的经济利益和需要，尽管近期出现美元加息的声音，但从长期看我们尚未看到这种美元弱势的趋势能根本扭转的迹象。随着国际大宗商品价格的飞速上扬，外部通胀上升的风险还在逐步提高。
单纯从市场和经济的角度来处理高油价矛盾是困难的，在找不到有效化解方法的情况下，一个所有人都不愿意接受的现实可能就会出现，那就是衰退和滞胀。而现阶段并未完全恶化的较高通胀状态已经开始对企业的成本和盈利增长造成了较明显的负面影响。
刚性汇率放大通胀风险
缺乏弹性的人民币汇率无法阻隔外部通胀的输入，在人民币低估预期已经形成的情况下，我国央行很难保持独立的贷币政策，控制本国货币供给存在很大的操作难度，外部流动性和通胀的输入将助推本国通胀上升。
机构研究判断，08年下半年因食品价格明显下降，处于CPI回落、PPI持续上升、但总体通胀形势可控的局面。我们判断。政府很有可能利用下半年通胀走势暂现缓降的时期，放松部分价格管制，继续加大解决成品油价格机制和煤电连动之类历史问题的力度。而预期09年仍存在一定的价格管制失效、货币紧缩政策难以为继、通胀恶化的潜在风险。
成本上升对上下游企业同时构成威胁
企业成本压力主要体现在能源和原材料的上升，同时人力成本的持续性上升以及财务成本的上升也对企业经营产生长效的负面影响。
能源价格攀升已经使若干行业出现全行业亏损或准亏损状态。电力、公用事业、石化炼油均出现行业性利润萎缩。电力行业因受电煤价格攀高影响出现全行业利润下滑，许多公司接近亏损状态。中国石油和中国石化上游业务的暴利被下游炼油业务亏损严重拖累，虽然政府对于成品油采取的政策性限价政策是造成下游业务亏损的主要原因，但我们也应该看到，即使是英国BP公司等全球综合性石油企业也均因为下游业务亏损而出现了业绩下滑现象。这说明，高油价的杀伤力是全面的，可预期的政府价格放松政策可能部分挽救石化行业的经营危机，但如果油价居高不下，这种局面仍将持续下去。
还有一个滞后因素需要注意，那就是在过去一个财务报告期内，虽然能源、原材料涨幅巨大，但相当多的企业在此期间消费着存料，或者说仍在执行去年的原材料和能源合同价格，所以成本上涨并未完全体现出来，但是到半年报或三季报的时候，这种压力会体现得更充分。
宏观调控对企业扩张形成约束
为了抑制通胀，央行去年采取了连续加息和提高存款准备金率的紧缩政策，其中仅提高准备金率累计10个百分点的手段就已回收了超过4万亿的银行流动性。银根紧缩的累加效应对企业形成的压力已经开始有所显现，对投资扩张型企业形成了有效约束，尤其以房地产业为甚。主要的地产企业显然出现了资金紧张的状况，从各方面媒体报道可判断出，最近房地产公司资金链十分危险，融资需求迫切。一些公司表面上维持了利润的高增长，但显然在去年四季度和一季度迫于现金流压力主动降价出售存量房屋，这在销售市场上已有充分体现。种种迹象表明，未来一段时间，房价进行一定幅度的下跌在所难免，这必然会影响到房地产上市公司二季度的业绩水平。统计局数据显示，从2003年以来，我国房地产企业的平均负债率一直高于70%，由于去年下半年以来银行贷款利息持续攀升并带动了民间融资成本也急剧抬升到惊人的水平，房地产业的财务成本已经非常之高，对房地产企业整个2008年的利润也会构成实质性损害。除了房地产业，融资困境对于其他行业中小企业的打击也是十分明显的。
全球经济萎缩对企业利润影响显性化
去年很长一段时间，美国次级债危机对中国经济的负面影响还仅仅是停留在预期的阶段，这是因为这种危机主要发生在金融领域，对于实体经济还没有构成实质性的影响。但是一季报显示，这种影响目前已开始触及实体经济领域。
港口公司利润增速先开始放缓，由于美国航线占比高达50%，盐田港受美国经济波动的影响更为明显。海运业一季度业绩同比实现大幅增长，主要是受去年四季度运价上涨的影响，如果去除这种影响，那么可能就会是另一个结果。如果再算上近期国际油价的大幅攀升，估计这些远洋运输企业的利润增速将肯定下降。港口和远洋运输企业只是一个信号而已，接下来的忧虑是所有外贸型的上市公司，美国人的消费者信心指数在持续下降，加上人民币对美元持续升值，这都会影响到中国出口企业的出口额及利润率。据媒体报道，温州市中小企业促进会统计，目前温州30多万家中小企业已经有20%左右处于停工或半停工状况。更加值得关注的是，正在经历危机的不仅仅是温州，在长三角的一些轻工制造业比较发达的地区，都面临着同样的困境。
宏观经济悲观预期已影响到股市估值
宏观经济面的悲观预期已明显影响和压低了股市的估值，这是今年市场在完全挤压泡沫后仍不能挽回跌势的根本原因之一。虽然股市经过大半年的下跌，A股当前估值已逐渐合理，但还没有到具有强吸引力的区间。历史经验显示，在分析师们还在继续下调盈利预测的时候，市场在平均市盈率低于20倍后才逐渐具有强吸引力，而近期水平约在23-24倍。市场一致预期的08年盈利预测已在向下修正，今年的盈利增速预期已从年初30%左右调低至22%。而申万证券对于重点公司的盈利预期去年9月时高达55%，今年初时预测为35%，近期预测重点公司盈利同比增速已降到22%水平。
我们所面临的投资环境背景之复杂是近几年来很少见的，必须慎重地平衡风险和收益，市场底部构筑将是一个漫长的过程，不可能一蹴而就，在这个过程中，投资人随时都可以在3000点以下买到自己心仪的股票。上市公司利润增长已经出现拐点，估值体系已经出现裂变，投资人应该关注公司估值的动态变化，而不可简单采用2007年的参照标准作为依据。如果半年报出台后多数上市公司利润增速继续下滑，反弹过后指数有可能再次创出调整以来的新低。在市场情况变得越来越复杂，监管政策反复多变的情况下，投资人不应该把注意力放在对于政策的无端猜测上，而应该撇开浮躁和恐惧的心态，意识到这一市场已回归到了价值投资本源的时代，我们关注市场变化的同时，更要关注各个企业的周期性和内在价值的评估，耐心寻找真正的长期投资机会。
The macroeconomic impact of expected continued downward valuation of A shares
/ Harry Huang
June on the stock market‘s most influential two major economic initiatives, first, the central bank raise deposit reserve ratio by one percentage point, reaching a record high of 17.5 percent, the government is also substantially increase the prices of finished oil products and electricity. The former shows that the central bank recognizes that high inflation risk is still focusing on prevention and implementing tight monetary policy while the latter is due to record high international crude oil prices on China‘s implementation of government price controls formation of the growing pressure, the Government, through the next CPI寻机expected a slight decline in oil prices and solve the coal-linked problems. This round of economic growth inherent in the various factors of production prices in China underestimate the debt also had to face to resolve the issue, at this stage, China‘s economy faces enormous internal and external inflationary pressures.
Factor prices faced revaluation
Since the beginning of the century, the economic growth process, in addition to the nominal exchange rate, China‘s labor, land, mineral resources, the environment, and other basic goods and public goods elements of the price, there are certain degree of price undervalued, the return of factor prices will increase China‘s inflation pressure.
Price controls on the economy‘s long-term development more harm than good, such as the refinery has long been the grant is actually on the residents and business subsidies, the effect of this grant is to market prices created a false impression that the domestic Consumers do not sense a timely and effective manner to changes in international oil prices, distorted the price formation mechanism will become even worse situation, the Government expect the economic restructuring and industrial energy-saving emission reduction can not be positive manner.
China‘s refined oil prices to gradually open up the trend is inevitable, but the second half could still rise. Argument is not without price adjustment, there will be negative impact. Financial pressure on the price adjustment is not too large, energy-saving is not conducive to reducing emissions, as Gasoline Shortages always the reasons for the price adjustment at this stage will be to suppress the level of inflation continued to increase recovery, pushed up CPI increase. The impact from the increase, rising oil prices on the impact of different enterprises, "Lengrebujun" upstream enterprises will be more positive impact, while the lower reaches, including traffic, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, such as consumer spending also will increase . Refined oil price hike of oil in the petrochemical such enterprises is a major positive, but on the other hand oil price rise would lead to the majority of the industry decline in profitability, which is the stock market medium-term future will continue to adjust the pattern of important factors.
External inflationary pressures increase
The proliferation of U.S. dollars, the weak dollar has began, due to depreciation of the dollar to the U.S. economy to the world and shift the burden of the crisis, with its own economic interests and needs, despite the recent interest rate increase the voice of dollars, but we have yet to see a long-term perspective To the weak dollar trend will reverse the fundamental signs. As international commodity prices rose rapidly, the external inflation risks are rising gradually increase.
Simply from the market and economic point of view to deal with high oil prices contradiction is difficult to find in an effective way to resolve the case, a all may be unwilling to accept the reality there will be, that is, recession and stagflation. But at this stage has not completely deteriorating state of higher inflation has started to-business costs and profit growth caused a significant negative impact.
Larger rigid exchange rate of inflation risk
Lack of flexibility of the RMB exchange rate of inflation can not be separated by external input, expected in the yuan undervalued has been formed under the circumstances, China‘s central bank to maintain an independent Monetary policy, control of the national currency supply a lot of operational difficulties, external liquidity and inflation input Will boost domestic inflation.
Research institutions judgement, 08 in the second half because food prices decreased significantly, the decline in the CPI, PPI continues to rise, but the overall inflation situation controllable situation. We judge. The Government is very likely to use the second half of the inflation trend is temporary relief to drop the period, easing some price controls, continue to resolve the refined oil pricing mechanism and coal-linked issues such as the intensity of history. And 09 are still expected a certain price control failure, tight monetary policy difficult, the potential risks of worsening inflation.
The rising costs of upstream and downstream businesses at the same time pose a threat
Corporate cost pressures primarily reflected in the rise in energy and raw materials, labor costs and increase the sustainability of the rise in financial costs to business a long-term negative impact.
Energy prices rose industry has made a number of industry-wide losses or potential loss of state. Electricity, public utilities, petrochemical, oil refining industry profits are in decline. The power industry due to rising electricity prices industry-wide impact of a profit downturn, many companies close to losing money. China Petroleum and China Petrochemical upper reaches of the downstream business of refining profits were serious loss of business drag, although the Government for finished oil products to the policy limit policy is causing the lower reaches of the main reasons for loss of business, but we should also see that even the British BP Companies such as the global integrated oil companies also are downstream business losses because of a decline in performance. This shows that the high oil prices of mass destruction is complete, the price can be expected to relax the policy to save the petrochemical industry may be part of the management crisis, but if high oil prices, this situation will continue.
There is also a lag factor to note that in the past a financial reporting period, although energy and raw materials or huge, but a considerable number of enterprises in this period of consumption of materials, or is still in last year‘s contract price of raw materials and energy Therefore, rising costs not fully reflected, but to Ban Nianbao or three Bulletin of the time, this pressure will be reflected more fully.
Macro-control of the business expansion of a binding
In order to curb inflation, the central bank last year adopted a consecutive interest rate increase and raise deposit reserve ratio of the austerity policy, which only increased the reserve accumulated rate of 10 percent means the recovery has been more than 4 trillion in bank liquidity. The cumulative effects of monetary tightening the pressure on the formation of enterprises have begun to appear, to invest in expansion-oriented enterprises formed an effective constraint, particularly in the case the real estate industry. Clearly the major real estate enterprises in the capital of the tense situation, to judge from all sources to media reports, the latest real estate company funds linked very dangerous, urgent financing needs. Some companies on the surface to maintain the high profit growth, it is clear that in the fourth quarter of last year and a quarter cash flow pressure due to take the initiative to sell the stock prices of housing, in which sales have been fully reflected on the market. There are indications that the coming period, prices dropped to a certain extent inevitable, this will inevitably affect the real estate company listed on the performance of the second quarter level. Bureau of Statistics data show that from 2003, China‘s real estate enterprises, the average debt rate has been higher than 70 percent, since the second half of last year due to interest on bank loans continued to increase and promote the civil cost of financing the rapid uplift to an alarming level, premises The financial industry has a very high cost of real estate enterprises throughout the 2008‘s profits will constitute a substantial damage. In addition to real estate, financing difficulties for SMEs in other industries to combat is also very clear.
The global economic downturn on corporate profits affect Xian Xinghua
Last year, for a very long time, the United States Ciji Zhai crisis on the negative impact of China‘s economy also is only expected to stay in the stage, it is because of this crisis occurred mainly in the financial field, the real economy has not yet constitute a substantive impact. But one issue showed that the impact has begun to touch on the current economic entities of the area.
Port corporate profits growth began to slow down first, because the United States accounted route as high as 50 percent, Yantian by fluctuations in the U.S. economy becomes more apparent. The first quarter of the maritime industry to achieve substantial growth year-on-year performance, mainly by the fourth quarter of last year the impact of tariff increase, if the removal of such effects, is another result may be. If taking into account the recent surge in international oil prices, it is estimated that these ocean shipping enterprise profit growth will certainly decline. Ports and ocean shipping enterprises it is just a signal, the next worry is all the foreign trade of the listed company, American consumer confidence index continued to drop, coupled with continued appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, which will affect the export of China‘s export enterprises And the amount of profit margins. According to media reports, Wenzhou City Council for Promoting SME statistics, at present, more than 30 million small and medium enterprises in Wenzhou have been around 20 percent in a suspension or semi-lay-off situation. More worthy of attention is that the crisis is being experienced not only in Wenzhou, in light of some of the Yangtze River Delta manufacturing the more developed regions, are facing the same predicament.
Macroeconomic pessimistic expectations have affected the stock market valuation
Macroeconomic of the pessimistic expectations have a significant impact on the stock market and depress the valuation, which is completely squeezed in the market this year after the bubble can not restore one of the root causes of decline. Although the stock market after six months of decline, A shares have gradually current valuation reasonable, but not a strong appeal to the interval. Historical experience shows that in the analysts are continuing to cut profit forecasts when the market in less than 20 times the average price-earnings ratio gradually after a strong appeal by the recent level of about 23-24 times. Market consensus forecasts of 08 profit forecasts have been revised downwards, this year‘s expected earnings growth rate of about 30 percent from the beginning reduced to 22%. The Shanghai Securities million for the company‘s focus on earnings forecast last September, when up to 55 percent, at the beginning of this year is forecast to be 35 percent, the recent focus on corporate profits forecast year-on-year growth rate has been reduced to 22 per cent level.
We are facing the investment environment in the context of the complex is rarely seen in recent years, we must carefully balance the risks and benefits, the market will be built at the bottom of a long process, can not be accomplished overnight, in the process, investors can always In 3000, following the crush to buy their own stock. Profit growth of listed companies has been a turning point, the valuation of fissile system has emerged, investors should pay attention to the dynamic changes in valuation of the company, and not simply using 2007 as a basis of reference. If Ban Nianbao following the introduction of the majority of profit growth of listed companies continued to decline, the index may rebound after the adjustment has again hit a new low. In market conditions become more complex, changing regulatory policies repeatedly circumstances, investors should not focus on the policy of unwarranted speculation, but should put aside the mentality of fear and impetuous, the market has been aware of this return To the value of investment origin of the times, we are concerned about changes in the market at the same time, more attention should be paid various enterprises and the intrinsic value of the periodic assessment of patience to find the real long-term investment opportunities.
文/黄辉
六月对股市最具影响力的两大经济举措，一是央行提高存款准备金率1个百分点，达到17.5％的历史新高，二是政府同时大幅上调了成品油价格和电价。前者表明央行认识到高通胀危险，仍以预防为主贯彻从紧的货币政策；后者则是由于屡创新高的国际原油价格对我国政府执行价格管制形成的压力越来越大，政府借CPI未来略有下降的预期寻机解决成品油价格和煤电连动问题。本轮经济增长过程中所隐含的我国各类生产要素价格低估的欠帐也面临着不得不解决的问题，现阶段我国经济面临着巨大的内部和外部通胀压力。
要素价格面临重估
在本世纪初以来的经济增长过程中，除名义汇率之外，我国劳动力、土地、矿产资源、环境等基础产品和公共品的要素价格，都存在一定程度的价格低估，要素价格的回归将增加我国的通胀压力。
价格管制手段对经济的长远发展弊大于利，比如长期以来对炼油企业的补助实际上就是对居民和企业的补助，这种补助的效果是，给市场造成了一种价格错觉，使国内的消费者并不能及时和有效地感知到国际石油价格的变化，被扭曲的价格形成机制将使情况变得更加糟糕，政府所期望的产业经济转型和节能减排也不可能积极地进行。
我国成品油价格逐步放开的趋势是必然的，而且下半年仍可能再上调。而无论调不调价，负面影响都会存在。不调价则财政压力过大，不利于节能减排，成为油荒时时出现的原因；调价则会造成现阶段被压制的通胀水平继续恢复性升高，推升CPI涨幅。从上调的影响看，油价上涨对不同企业的影响是“冷热不均”的，上游企业正面影响会较多；而下游包括交通、运输、农业、渔业还有消费者开支等则会增加。成品油提价对中石油中石化这类企业是重大利好，但另一方面油价电价上涨将导致多数行业的企业盈利能力下降，这是股市未来将继续中期调整格局的重要因素。
外部通胀压力增大
美元泛滥、美元弱势已拉开序幕，由于美元贬值有利于美国经济向世界转嫁危机和负担，所以符合美国自身的经济利益和需要，尽管近期出现美元加息的声音，但从长期看我们尚未看到这种美元弱势的趋势能根本扭转的迹象。随着国际大宗商品价格的飞速上扬，外部通胀上升的风险还在逐步提高。
单纯从市场和经济的角度来处理高油价矛盾是困难的，在找不到有效化解方法的情况下，一个所有人都不愿意接受的现实可能就会出现，那就是衰退和滞胀。而现阶段并未完全恶化的较高通胀状态已经开始对企业的成本和盈利增长造成了较明显的负面影响。
刚性汇率放大通胀风险
缺乏弹性的人民币汇率无法阻隔外部通胀的输入，在人民币低估预期已经形成的情况下，我国央行很难保持独立的贷币政策，控制本国货币供给存在很大的操作难度，外部流动性和通胀的输入将助推本国通胀上升。
机构研究判断，08年下半年因食品价格明显下降，处于CPI回落、PPI持续上升、但总体通胀形势可控的局面。我们判断。政府很有可能利用下半年通胀走势暂现缓降的时期，放松部分价格管制，继续加大解决成品油价格机制和煤电连动之类历史问题的力度。而预期09年仍存在一定的价格管制失效、货币紧缩政策难以为继、通胀恶化的潜在风险。
成本上升对上下游企业同时构成威胁
企业成本压力主要体现在能源和原材料的上升，同时人力成本的持续性上升以及财务成本的上升也对企业经营产生长效的负面影响。
能源价格攀升已经使若干行业出现全行业亏损或准亏损状态。电力、公用事业、石化炼油均出现行业性利润萎缩。电力行业因受电煤价格攀高影响出现全行业利润下滑，许多公司接近亏损状态。中国石油和中国石化上游业务的暴利被下游炼油业务亏损严重拖累，虽然政府对于成品油采取的政策性限价政策是造成下游业务亏损的主要原因，但我们也应该看到，即使是英国BP公司等全球综合性石油企业也均因为下游业务亏损而出现了业绩下滑现象。这说明，高油价的杀伤力是全面的，可预期的政府价格放松政策可能部分挽救石化行业的经营危机，但如果油价居高不下，这种局面仍将持续下去。
还有一个滞后因素需要注意，那就是在过去一个财务报告期内，虽然能源、原材料涨幅巨大，但相当多的企业在此期间消费着存料，或者说仍在执行去年的原材料和能源合同价格，所以成本上涨并未完全体现出来，但是到半年报或三季报的时候，这种压力会体现得更充分。
宏观调控对企业扩张形成约束
为了抑制通胀，央行去年采取了连续加息和提高存款准备金率的紧缩政策，其中仅提高准备金率累计10个百分点的手段就已回收了超过4万亿的银行流动性。银根紧缩的累加效应对企业形成的压力已经开始有所显现，对投资扩张型企业形成了有效约束，尤其以房地产业为甚。主要的地产企业显然出现了资金紧张的状况，从各方面媒体报道可判断出，最近房地产公司资金链十分危险，融资需求迫切。一些公司表面上维持了利润的高增长，但显然在去年四季度和一季度迫于现金流压力主动降价出售存量房屋，这在销售市场上已有充分体现。种种迹象表明，未来一段时间，房价进行一定幅度的下跌在所难免，这必然会影响到房地产上市公司二季度的业绩水平。统计局数据显示，从2003年以来，我国房地产企业的平均负债率一直高于70%，由于去年下半年以来银行贷款利息持续攀升并带动了民间融资成本也急剧抬升到惊人的水平，房地产业的财务成本已经非常之高，对房地产企业整个2008年的利润也会构成实质性损害。除了房地产业，融资困境对于其他行业中小企业的打击也是十分明显的。
全球经济萎缩对企业利润影响显性化
去年很长一段时间，美国次级债危机对中国经济的负面影响还仅仅是停留在预期的阶段，这是因为这种危机主要发生在金融领域，对于实体经济还没有构成实质性的影响。但是一季报显示，这种影响目前已开始触及实体经济领域。
港口公司利润增速先开始放缓，由于美国航线占比高达50%，盐田港受美国经济波动的影响更为明显。海运业一季度业绩同比实现大幅增长，主要是受去年四季度运价上涨的影响，如果去除这种影响，那么可能就会是另一个结果。如果再算上近期国际油价的大幅攀升，估计这些远洋运输企业的利润增速将肯定下降。港口和远洋运输企业只是一个信号而已，接下来的忧虑是所有外贸型的上市公司，美国人的消费者信心指数在持续下降，加上人民币对美元持续升值，这都会影响到中国出口企业的出口额及利润率。据媒体报道，温州市中小企业促进会统计，目前温州30多万家中小企业已经有20%左右处于停工或半停工状况。更加值得关注的是，正在经历危机的不仅仅是温州，在长三角的一些轻工制造业比较发达的地区，都面临着同样的困境。
宏观经济悲观预期已影响到股市估值
宏观经济面的悲观预期已明显影响和压低了股市的估值，这是今年市场在完全挤压泡沫后仍不能挽回跌势的根本原因之一。虽然股市经过大半年的下跌，A股当前估值已逐渐合理，但还没有到具有强吸引力的区间。历史经验显示，在分析师们还在继续下调盈利预测的时候，市场在平均市盈率低于20倍后才逐渐具有强吸引力，而近期水平约在23-24倍。市场一致预期的08年盈利预测已在向下修正，今年的盈利增速预期已从年初30%左右调低至22%。而申万证券对于重点公司的盈利预期去年9月时高达55%，今年初时预测为35%，近期预测重点公司盈利同比增速已降到22%水平。
我们所面临的投资环境背景之复杂是近几年来很少见的，必须慎重地平衡风险和收益，市场底部构筑将是一个漫长的过程，不可能一蹴而就，在这个过程中，投资人随时都可以在3000点以下买到自己心仪的股票。上市公司利润增长已经出现拐点，估值体系已经出现裂变，投资人应该关注公司估值的动态变化，而不可简单采用2007年的参照标准作为依据。如果半年报出台后多数上市公司利润增速继续下滑，反弹过后指数有可能再次创出调整以来的新低。在市场情况变得越来越复杂，监管政策反复多变的情况下，投资人不应该把注意力放在对于政策的无端猜测上，而应该撇开浮躁和恐惧的心态，意识到这一市场已回归到了价值投资本源的时代，我们关注市场变化的同时，更要关注各个企业的周期性和内在价值的评估，耐心寻找真正的长期投资机会。
The macroeconomic impact of expected continued downward valuation of A shares
/ Harry Huang
June on the stock market‘s most influential two major economic initiatives, first, the central bank raise deposit reserve ratio by one percentage point, reaching a record high of 17.5 percent, the government is also substantially increase the prices of finished oil products and electricity. The former shows that the central bank recognizes that high inflation risk is still focusing on prevention and implementing tight monetary policy while the latter is due to record high international crude oil prices on China‘s implementation of government price controls formation of the growing pressure, the Government, through the next CPI寻机expected a slight decline in oil prices and solve the coal-linked problems. This round of economic growth inherent in the various factors of production prices in China underestimate the debt also had to face to resolve the issue, at this stage, China‘s economy faces enormous internal and external inflationary pressures.
Factor prices faced revaluation
Since the beginning of the century, the economic growth process, in addition to the nominal exchange rate, China‘s labor, land, mineral resources, the environment, and other basic goods and public goods elements of the price, there are certain degree of price undervalued, the return of factor prices will increase China‘s inflation pressure.
Price controls on the economy‘s long-term development more harm than good, such as the refinery has long been the grant is actually on the residents and business subsidies, the effect of this grant is to market prices created a false impression that the domestic Consumers do not sense a timely and effective manner to changes in international oil prices, distorted the price formation mechanism will become even worse situation, the Government expect the economic restructuring and industrial energy-saving emission reduction can not be positive manner.
China‘s refined oil prices to gradually open up the trend is inevitable, but the second half could still rise. Argument is not without price adjustment, there will be negative impact. Financial pressure on the price adjustment is not too large, energy-saving is not conducive to reducing emissions, as Gasoline Shortages always the reasons for the price adjustment at this stage will be to suppress the level of inflation continued to increase recovery, pushed up CPI increase. The impact from the increase, rising oil prices on the impact of different enterprises, "Lengrebujun" upstream enterprises will be more positive impact, while the lower reaches, including traffic, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, such as consumer spending also will increase . Refined oil price hike of oil in the petrochemical such enterprises is a major positive, but on the other hand oil price rise would lead to the majority of the industry decline in profitability, which is the stock market medium-term future will continue to adjust the pattern of important factors.
External inflationary pressures increase
The proliferation of U.S. dollars, the weak dollar has began, due to depreciation of the dollar to the U.S. economy to the world and shift the burden of the crisis, with its own economic interests and needs, despite the recent interest rate increase the voice of dollars, but we have yet to see a long-term perspective To the weak dollar trend will reverse the fundamental signs. As international commodity prices rose rapidly, the external inflation risks are rising gradually increase.
Simply from the market and economic point of view to deal with high oil prices contradiction is difficult to find in an effective way to resolve the case, a all may be unwilling to accept the reality there will be, that is, recession and stagflation. But at this stage has not completely deteriorating state of higher inflation has started to-business costs and profit growth caused a significant negative impact.
Larger rigid exchange rate of inflation risk
Lack of flexibility of the RMB exchange rate of inflation can not be separated by external input, expected in the yuan undervalued has been formed under the circumstances, China‘s central bank to maintain an independent Monetary policy, control of the national currency supply a lot of operational difficulties, external liquidity and inflation input Will boost domestic inflation.
Research institutions judgement, 08 in the second half because food prices decreased significantly, the decline in the CPI, PPI continues to rise, but the overall inflation situation controllable situation. We judge. The Government is very likely to use the second half of the inflation trend is temporary relief to drop the period, easing some price controls, continue to resolve the refined oil pricing mechanism and coal-linked issues such as the intensity of history. And 09 are still expected a certain price control failure, tight monetary policy difficult, the potential risks of worsening inflation.
The rising costs of upstream and downstream businesses at the same time pose a threat
Corporate cost pressures primarily reflected in the rise in energy and raw materials, labor costs and increase the sustainability of the rise in financial costs to business a long-term negative impact.
Energy prices rose industry has made a number of industry-wide losses or potential loss of state. Electricity, public utilities, petrochemical, oil refining industry profits are in decline. The power industry due to rising electricity prices industry-wide impact of a profit downturn, many companies close to losing money. China Petroleum and China Petrochemical upper reaches of the downstream business of refining profits were serious loss of business drag, although the Government for finished oil products to the policy limit policy is causing the lower reaches of the main reasons for loss of business, but we should also see that even the British BP Companies such as the global integrated oil companies also are downstream business losses because of a decline in performance. This shows that the high oil prices of mass destruction is complete, the price can be expected to relax the policy to save the petrochemical industry may be part of the management crisis, but if high oil prices, this situation will continue.
There is also a lag factor to note that in the past a financial reporting period, although energy and raw materials or huge, but a considerable number of enterprises in this period of consumption of materials, or is still in last year‘s contract price of raw materials and energy Therefore, rising costs not fully reflected, but to Ban Nianbao or three Bulletin of the time, this pressure will be reflected more fully.
Macro-control of the business expansion of a binding
In order to curb inflation, the central bank last year adopted a consecutive interest rate increase and raise deposit reserve ratio of the austerity policy, which only increased the reserve accumulated rate of 10 percent means the recovery has been more than 4 trillion in bank liquidity. The cumulative effects of monetary tightening the pressure on the formation of enterprises have begun to appear, to invest in expansion-oriented enterprises formed an effective constraint, particularly in the case the real estate industry. Clearly the major real estate enterprises in the capital of the tense situation, to judge from all sources to media reports, the latest real estate company funds linked very dangerous, urgent financing needs. Some companies on the surface to maintain the high profit growth, it is clear that in the fourth quarter of last year and a quarter cash flow pressure due to take the initiative to sell the stock prices of housing, in which sales have been fully reflected on the market. There are indications that the coming period, prices dropped to a certain extent inevitable, this will inevitably affect the real estate company listed on the performance of the second quarter level. Bureau of Statistics data show that from 2003, China‘s real estate enterprises, the average debt rate has been higher than 70 percent, since the second half of last year due to interest on bank loans continued to increase and promote the civil cost of financing the rapid uplift to an alarming level, premises The financial industry has a very high cost of real estate enterprises throughout the 2008‘s profits will constitute a substantial damage. In addition to real estate, financing difficulties for SMEs in other industries to combat is also very clear.
The global economic downturn on corporate profits affect Xian Xinghua
Last year, for a very long time, the United States Ciji Zhai crisis on the negative impact of China‘s economy also is only expected to stay in the stage, it is because of this crisis occurred mainly in the financial field, the real economy has not yet constitute a substantive impact. But one issue showed that the impact has begun to touch on the current economic entities of the area.
Port corporate profits growth began to slow down first, because the United States accounted route as high as 50 percent, Yantian by fluctuations in the U.S. economy becomes more apparent. The first quarter of the maritime industry to achieve substantial growth year-on-year performance, mainly by the fourth quarter of last year the impact of tariff increase, if the removal of such effects, is another result may be. If taking into account the recent surge in international oil prices, it is estimated that these ocean shipping enterprise profit growth will certainly decline. Ports and ocean shipping enterprises it is just a signal, the next worry is all the foreign trade of the listed company, American consumer confidence index continued to drop, coupled with continued appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, which will affect the export of China‘s export enterprises And the amount of profit margins. According to media reports, Wenzhou City Council for Promoting SME statistics, at present, more than 30 million small and medium enterprises in Wenzhou have been around 20 percent in a suspension or semi-lay-off situation. More worthy of attention is that the crisis is being experienced not only in Wenzhou, in light of some of the Yangtze River Delta manufacturing the more developed regions, are facing the same predicament.
Macroeconomic pessimistic expectations have affected the stock market valuation
Macroeconomic of the pessimistic expectations have a significant impact on the stock market and depress the valuation, which is completely squeezed in the market this year after the bubble can not restore one of the root causes of decline. Although the stock market after six months of decline, A shares have gradually current valuation reasonable, but not a strong appeal to the interval. Historical experience shows that in the analysts are continuing to cut profit forecasts when the market in less than 20 times the average price-earnings ratio gradually after a strong appeal by the recent level of about 23-24 times. Market consensus forecasts of 08 profit forecasts have been revised downwards, this year‘s expected earnings growth rate of about 30 percent from the beginning reduced to 22%. The Shanghai Securities million for the company‘s focus on earnings forecast last September, when up to 55 percent, at the beginning of this year is forecast to be 35 percent, the recent focus on corporate profits forecast year-on-year growth rate has been reduced to 22 per cent level.
We are facing the investment environment in the context of the complex is rarely seen in recent years, we must carefully balance the risks and benefits, the market will be built at the bottom of a long process, can not be accomplished overnight, in the process, investors can always In 3000, following the crush to buy their own stock. Profit growth of listed companies has been a turning point, the valuation of fissile system has emerged, investors should pay attention to the dynamic changes in valuation of the company, and not simply using 2007 as a basis of reference. If Ban Nianbao following the introduction of the majority of profit growth of listed companies continued to decline, the index may rebound after the adjustment has again hit a new low. In market conditions become more complex, changing regulatory policies repeatedly circumstances, investors should not focus on the policy of unwarranted speculation, but should put aside the mentality of fear and impetuous, the market has been aware of this return To the value of investment origin of the times, we are concerned about changes in the market at the same time, more attention should be paid various enterprises and the intrinsic value of the periodic assessment of patience to find the real long-term investment opportunities.