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向松祚：必须根治全球经济体系的艾滋病
http://www.sina.com.cn 2010年12月28日 02:17 每日经济新闻
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| 图示∶2010年12月即将出版的《中国特色医疗金鉴》登载的刘君主任及其机构 |
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中国人民大学国际货币研究所理事和副所长 向松祚
众所周知，艾滋病的HIV病毒是一种能攻击人体免疫系统的病毒，破坏人的免疫平衡，使人体成为各种疾病的载体。
人体是一个复杂的动态演化体系，人类经济体系和金融体系也是一个复杂的动态演化体系。如果说“艾滋病”已经成为威胁人类生存最危险的致命疾病之一，那么，人类经济体系和金融体系也同样患上了一种致命的“艾滋病”，一种“金融艾滋病”——源自1971年8月15日的浮动汇率体系。
2007~2008年金融危机以来，改革和重建国际货币体系之呼声响彻云霄，却始终是雷声大雨点小。基本原因就是美国不愿意承认浮动汇率体系是全球金融体系的致命疾病，不愿意采取措施稳定全球汇率体系，因为至少短期内，浮动汇率对美国极其有利，能够更好地为美国利益服务。尽管长期来看，汇率动荡必然削弱美国经济，然而政治家总是眼光短浅，没有人愿意去思考长远的重大问题。
另一个主要原因是，全世界的经济学者至今没有深刻理解浮动汇率的运行机制，没有真正理解浮动汇率为什么是导致全球失衡的根本原因。
2010年12月10～11日，法国人马克乌赞领导的“重建布雷顿森林体系委员会”隆重其事，在巴黎举行一个大型会议，主题是《国际货币体系改革：旧的争论和新的论战》。两天紧张的会议辩论取得了什么结论呢？没有！这当然在意料之中。各国观察分析国际货币体系的视角非常不同，利益分歧非常大，达成共识比登天还难。然而，多次参加类似的国际会议，我却得到一个非常强烈的观感和结论，那就是全球有识之士都看到了当代国际货币体系最本质的内在矛盾——各国都希望本国金融体系稳定有序，与国际资本流动和汇率动荡不安之间的深刻矛盾。所有其他的国际金融问题，皆源自此一基本矛盾。
从巴黎回北京的飞机上，我首次想到用“艾滋病”来比喻国际金融体系的基本矛盾和深刻缺陷。是的，如果从历史的视角去看一看过去40年浮动汇率时代全球经济的各种指标，我们就不得不承认：浮动汇率的确已经成为全球金融经济体系致命的“金融艾滋病”。
英国经济学者斯基德尔斯基在《凯恩斯：大师归来》一书中，将战后历史分为布雷顿森林时期 （1951~1980年）和“华盛顿共识时期”亦即浮动汇率时期（1980~2007年），综合分析了多个机构的数据，对比了两个时期的真实经济增长速度、失业率、汇率动荡幅度、收入分配公平度。得出的结论非常明确而惊人：“布雷顿森林体系的固定汇率时代，人类享受到更快的真实经济增长、更低的失业率、更公平的收入分配和很少的汇率动荡。华盛顿共识或浮动汇率时代则恰好相反！”
斯基德尔斯基得出的结论，与许多其他学者的研究成果完全一致。蒙代尔、麦金龙及其众多弟子近半个世纪的研究，一致认为浮动汇率是人类经济增长和金融稳定之大敌；经济史学家麦迪逊数十年的统计分析证明，浮动汇率时代的真实经济增长，远远比不上固定汇率时代。
笔者曾经将过去40年来国际货币体系对人类经济的深刻影响，概括为“七宗罪”：史无前例的通货膨胀；频繁发生的金融危机；急剧下降的经济增长；不断恶化的全球失衡；美元本位制和浮动汇率推动的金融自由化让许多发展中国家的经济陷入困境；美元超级霸权和超级利益不断强化；纯粹美元本位制和浮动汇率加剧了国际货币体系的不对称性和不公正性，世界几乎所有国家皆经历了反复的“资产泡沫—泡沫破灭周期”，全球经济总体呈现严重的泡沫化趋向。
“七宗罪”的核心则是纯粹美元本位制和浮动汇率体系。须知1970年以来全球基础货币或国际储备货币从380亿美元激增到超过9万亿美元，增速超过200倍，而真实经济增长不过5倍。要不是上世纪80年代之后，以中国为首的发展中国家纷纷加入世界竞争，为全球提供廉价产品，西方发达国家的通货膨胀至少是今天的数倍。货币的泛滥导致信用的泛滥，信用的泛滥导致高杠杆经营的泛滥，货币泡沫、信用泡沫、资产价格泡沫越吹越大，势不可挡，终于酿成全球金融海啸。可悲的是，以美国为首的西方发达国家竟然还是希望再次用货币泡沫和汇率贬值来刺激真实经济复苏。
据说，科学家将在未来10～15年内攻克人体“艾滋病”。全球政治家和经济学者有望在同一时期攻克经济金融体系的“艾滋病”吗？只有天知道！
Jo to the song: the global economic system must cure AIDS http://www.sina.com.cn 2010 年 12 月 28 日 02:17 Daily News
Institute of Renmin University of China governing the international monetary and Song, deputy director of the Jo
We all know, AIDS, HIV virus is a human immune system to attack the virus, destroy the human immune balance so that the carrier of the human body for a variety of diseases.
The human body is a complex system of dynamic evolution, the human economic system and financial system is a complex and dynamic evolution of system. If "AIDS" has become the most dangerous threat to the survival of mankind is one deadly disease, then the human economic system and financial system is also suffering from a deadly "AIDS", a "financial AIDS" - from 1971 on August 15 of the floating exchange rate system.
2007 to 2008 financial crisis, reform and reconstruction of the voice of the international monetary system, the air, and it has always been thunder, little rain. The basic reason is that the United States unwilling to accept a floating exchange rate system is a fatal disease, the global financial system, unwilling to take measures to stabilize the global exchange rate system, because at least the short term, floating exchange rate extremely favorable to the United States, to better serve U.S. interests. Despite the long run, exchange rate volatility necessarily weaken the U.S. economy, however, is always short-sighted politicians, no one wants to think long-term major problems.
Another main reason is that economists around the world there has been no deep understanding of the operation of a floating exchange rate system, floating exchange rate did not really understand why it is the root cause of global imbalances caused.
December 2010 10 to 11, like the French Make Wu-led "reconstruction of Bretton Woods Committee" mark the occasion, a major conference held in Paris on the theme "Reform of the international monetary system: the old and the new debate debate . " Two days of intense debate, the meeting made any conclusion? No! This is of course expected. States to observe and analyze the perspective of the international monetary system is very different, very large divergence of interests, be prohibitively difficult to reach a consensus. However, has participated in similar international conferences, I got a very strong impression and conclusion that the contemporary global insight have seen the nature of the international monetary system, the internal contradictions - all countries want stability in their financial system sequence, and the volatile international capital flows and exchange rates between the profound contradictions. All other international financial issues, are derived from this basic contradiction.
The plane from Paris to Beijing, I first thought of "AIDS" to describe the basic contradictions of the international financial system and deep defects. Yes, if you look at from a historical perspective to the era of floating exchange rates over the past 40 years, global economic indicators, we have to admit: a floating exchange rate has indeed become a deadly global financial and economic system "financial AIDS."
Skidelsky, UK economist at the "Keynes: Master Returns", a book will be divided into the Bretton Woods period of post-war history (1951 to 1980) and the "Washington consensus period" which is a floating exchange rate period (1980 ~ 2007 years), a comprehensive analysis of the various bodies of data, compared two periods of real economic growth rate, unemployment rate, exchange rate instability, a fair degree of income distribution. Conclusion is very clear and striking: "the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rate era, real human beings to enjoy faster economic growth, lower unemployment, more equitable income distribution and very little exchange rate volatility. Washington Consensus or floating exchange rate era is just the opposite! "
Skidelsky, concluded, with many other research results exactly the same. Mondale, Michael Golden Dragon and the many disciples nearly half a century of research, agreed that the floating exchange rate is the human economic growth and financial stability of the enemy; economic historian, Madison decades of statistical analysis shows that the floating exchange rate era real economic growth, far less than the fixed exchange rate era.
I have the past 40 years, the international monetary system a profound impact on the human economy, summed up as "Seven": unprecedented inflation; frequent financial crises; sharp decline in economic growth; worsening global imbalances; dollar standard system and floating exchange rates to promote financial liberalization, the economic difficulties of many developing countries; U.S. superpower and super benefits continue to strengthen; pure dollar standard system and the floating exchange rate exacerbated the asymmetry of the international monetary system and the injustice in the world almost all countries are experiencing a repeated "asset bubbles - the bubble burst cycle", the global economy as a whole tend to show a serious bubble.
"Seven sins" of the core is pure dollar standard and floating exchange rate system. Notes on a global basis since 1970, currency or the international reserve currency surged from 38 billion U.S. dollars to over 9 trillion U.S. dollars, the growth rate more than 200 times, while real economic growth, but 5 times. But for the last century, after 80 years, developing countries led by China, have joined the global competition to provide cheap products for the global, Western developed countries, inflation is at least several times today. Flood of money led to the proliferation of credit, credit spread causes the proliferation of highly leveraged operations, currency bubble, credit bubble, the greater the asset price bubble blowing, overwhelming, and finally lead to the global financial tsunami. Sadly, the US-led Western countries still hope that even once the bubble monetary and exchange rate devaluation to stimulate real economic recovery.
It is said that scientists will in the next 10 to 15 years to overcome the human body "AIDS." Politicians and economists worldwide are expected to overcome the economic and financial system during the same period of the "AIDS" it? Only God knows!
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